vf-tropicom Meteorological Analysis for East Africa

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Seasonal Vegetation Index

(Note differences in months due to timing of seasons)

Seasonal vegetative index Seasonal vegetative index


Seasonal Rainfall

(Note differences in months due to timing of seasons)

Seasonal rainfall Seasonal rainfall


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Preliminary Monthly Weather Analysis
Eastern Africa and the Horn

From the African Desk, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Note: This information should be used with caution.
Weather data based on preliminary reports.

  • March 1-10 2007 - Light to moderate rains (1-38 mm; 2-78% of normal) signaled a slow start to the rainy season across southern Kenya, and central and northern Uganda. Light or no rains also fell over northern Tanzania, while wet conditions prevailed in the unimodal areas of southern Tanzania. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated below normal across Rwanda and Burundi, where rainfall amounts ranged between 1 and 25 mm. Dry conditions prevailed over northern and coastal Kenya, Somali, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan. Temperatures were generally 1 to 2 degrees C below normal across southwestern Kenya and central Ethiopia. They were 1 to 2 degrees C above normal over central Sudan. >
  • February 2007 - Above average rains (28-130 mm, 101-747% of normal) fell over southwestern Kenya, most of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. The Ethiopia highlands and most of Uganda received (41-60 mm, 139-239% of normal). Seasonable dryness prevailed across the eastern half of Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan.
  • February 21-28 2007 - Enhanced rainfall (7-61mm, 91-412% of normal) was confined only to the central and western areas in Kenya extending to the Lake Victoria basin in Tanzania. The areas surrounding Mt Kilimanjaro, both in Kenya and Tanzania, also experienced abnormally heavy rainfall (8-26mm, 86-215% of normal). The eastern coast of Tanzania received 22-132mm (82-953% of normal). Dry conditions prevailed elsewhere. Temperatures were generally near normal.
  • February 1-10 2007 - Abnormally wet weather extended from Tanzania northward through Uganda, western Kenya, and into central Ethiopia. Both Tanzania and Burundi have reported flooding, and amounts exceeded 75 mm in Burundi and central and southern Tanzania. Stations reports ranged as high as 169 mm (211% of normal) in southern Tanzania. In Ethiopia, the belg rains have started early, as the anomalous January rains have continued into February. Several stations reported 40 to 46 mm (300-600% of normal) this period in central Ethiopia. Somalia and eastern Kenya were seasonably dry. Temperatures were generally near normal across the region.
  • January 1-10 2007 - Beneficially dry weather again covered Somalia and northeastern Kenya, and Ethiopia as well. Some moderate showers (25-50 mm) fell in central Somalia and southern Ethiopia. Abnormally heavy rains (40-100 mm, 150-500% of normal) continued over central and southern Kenya into Tanzania. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal except for 1 to 4 degrees C below normal in Sudan.
  • December 11-20 2006 - The weather turned significantly drier over Ethiopia, Somalia, and northern Kenya, offering a respite from the flooding rains that had been striking the region since October. Rainfall amounts were negligible over most of Ethiopia, and generally light over Somalia, except in the south, near the Juba River, where amounts ranged from 10 to over 75 mm, according to satellite estimates. Heavy rains did exceed 90 mm (200-900% of normal) over southeastern Kenya, but amounts totaled less than 5 mm across the north. Abnormally wet weather covered Tanzania, with amounts of 75 to 150 mm (150-400% of normal) commonplace. Temperatures were mainly near normal over East Africa.
  • December 1-10 2006 - Over 75 mm of rain (over 400% of normal) fell on scattered locations in Kenya and Ethiopia, but many locations recorded beneficially drier totals of 30 mm or less. The 10-day totals (10-30 mm) were even below normal in extreme southern Somalia and much of central and southern Kenya, helping to ease the flooding threat. Nevertheless, estimated totals exceeding 100 mm in southern Ethiopia delivered more water to the upper reaches of the Juba and Shebelle Rivers in Somalia and adjacent Ethiopia, maintaining the serious flood threat in this region. Heavy rains brought flooding to Djibouti as well. In addition, excessive rains (75-150 mm, 150-400% of normal) struck western Tanzania again, as well as southern Tanzania. Cumulative rainfall totals since October 1 for this historically wet rainy season exceed 400% of normal in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania, with 200% of normal widespread throughout the region. Temperatures generally averaged near normal.
  • November 2006 - In sections of the Greater Horn of Africa, rainfall has not abated since the beginning of the season. Totals ranged between 107 mm in northern Kenya and 349 mm in the southwest, representing 103 to 458% of normal across the country. Rainfall was also quite abundant across Tanzania, with amounts in the interior of the country between 36 and 319 mm (120-270% of normal), while the coastal areas registered 64-640 mm (116-554% of normal). Satellite estimated rainfall totaled 150-300 mm in southern Somalia, with the heaviest amounts along the border with Kenya. Rainfall estimates (100-300 mm) were also quite heavy across Uganda northward into southeastern Sudan and southwestern Ethiopia, and across Rwanda and Burundi. In contrast, light to moderate rains (25-100 mm) resulted in moisture deficits locally over central Somalia, while seasonable dryness prevailed in the north. Seasonable dryness also prevailed across Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia and central and northern Sudan.
  • November 21-30 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains once again sustained moisture across most of Kenya and southern Somalia, maintaining flood threats along many rivers. The heaviest rainfall amounts (90-217 mm; 127-577% of normal) were located in western Kenya, including the breadbasket. Southeastern Kenya and the northern coast line also received sizable rainfall amounts (40-88 mm; 90-563% of normal). The rains extended south into Tanzania and brought some relief to the short term dryness over eastern Tanzania, although local areas in the northeast continued to experience moisture deficits. Rainfall amounts across Tanzania ranged between 41 mm (102% of normal) in the north and 217 mm (400% of normal) in the southwest. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains (50-150 mm) over southern Somalia, while lighter rains fell in the north and dry conditions prevailed in the central areas. Heavy rains (200-700 mm) soaked southeastern Uganda and broke a 3-week drying trend in some areas. Rainfall was lighter but beneficial across western Uganda, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. Lighter rains fell across Ethiopia, except local areas in the south and in the central part that received moderate rains (28-64 mm; 355-400% of normal), respectively. Dry conditions prevailed over most of Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti. Temperatures generally averaged 1 to 2 degrees C below normal over Sudan and Ethiopia. They were 1 to 2 degrees C above normal over Kenya.
  • November 11-20 2006 - Heavy rains continued to cause flood threats along many rivers across Kenya and southern Somalia. Rainfall amounts ranged between 55 and 273 mm (110-500% of normal) across the southern half of Kenya, including the coastal areas, while satellite rainfall estimates indicated 75-150 mm over southern Somalia. However, northern Kenya and most of Uganda remained dry for two consecutive periods. Light to moderate rains (12-65 mm; 82-443% of normal) fell locally over southern and west central Ethiopia. Rainfall estimates (25-75 mm) were moderate to heavy across western Tanzania, eastern Rwanda, and Burundi. Dry conditions sustained moisture deficits across eastern Tanzania, except local areas along the coast that received 10-50 mm. Seasonable dryness prevailed over the northern areas of Somalia and Ethiopia, most of Eritrea, Djibouti, and Sudan. Temperature departures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C below normal over Ethiopia and Sudan. They were near normal across Kenya.
  • October 2006 - Due to the heavy rains that began striking the Horn of Africa in mid-October, monthly rainfall ranged from 150 to over 700% of normal from eastern and northern Kenya into central and southern Somalia and much of Ethiopia. Satellite estimated rainfall totaled as much as 300 mm locally along the coast of Somalia near Mogadishu. Observed rainfall reached 308 mm on the Kenyan coast at Mombasa, resulting in serious flooding. In contrast, monthly rainfall totaled less than 50% of normal from extreme southwest Kenya through western Tanzania. Rwanda and Burundi also saw below-normal rainfall this month. Temperatures generally averaged near normal region-wide.
  • October 21-31 2006 - Heavy rains drenched Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, causing major river flooding. Particularly heavy rains struck southern and central Somalia on October 20-21 and again on October 27, with satellite estimated totals exceeding 50 mm in 24 hours for many locations. During October 21-31, totals ranged from 75 mm to 200 mm (200% to over 1,000% of normal) from eastern Kenya into southern and central Somalia and northward into southern Ethiopia as well as central and western Ethiopia. The excessive rains did produce some benefits despite the flooding damage, as they led to major alleviation of the long-term drought that had been affecting parts of this region. Satellite vegetation images indicate greenup in areas of Somalia and southern Ethiopia that appeared drought-stricken one year ago. The imagery also implies that parts of Kenya may still be enduring long-term drought impacts. Farther south, western and northern Tanzania picked up only 0 to 10 mm of rain (0-50% of normal), so this area needs moisture. Temperatures averaged near normal for the region.
  • October 11-20 2006 - Rainfall diminished significantly in most areas in the western Ethiopian Plateau as amounts ranged between 2 and 35 mm (15-72% of normal). However, local areas in the northern part of the Plateau registered 50 mm or 75% above the mean. Light to moderate rains (6-50 mm; 83-154% of normal) brought relief to portions of the southern areas of Ethiopia, and the rains have also spread to the east covering most of the Hale and Harerge provinces. Heavy showers ((50-150 mm) fell over southern Somalia, according to the satellite rainfall estimates. Meanwhile, scattered light to moderate thunderstorms (6-40 mm; 85-622% of normal) fell over portions of eastern Sudan. Moderate to heavy rains (11-244 mm; 89-581% of normal) returned to the eastern half of Kenya and northeastern Tanzania, raising flood potentials locally along coastal Kenya. However, little rain (5-11 mm; 12-45% of normal) fell in southwestern Kenya, the breadbasket of the country, while dry conditions prevailed to the north. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated dry conditions over southern Sudan and most of Uganda southward into Tanzania. Dry conditions also prevailed over most of Eritrea, Djibouti, and most areas in northern Somalia. Temperature departures averaged 1 to degrees C above normal in Kenya. They were about 1 to 2 degrees C below normal over most of Uganda.
  • October 1-10 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains (40-105 mm; 107-216% of normal) continued to sustain moisture surplus in portions of the western Ethiopian Plateau and the southern areas. However, light rains (6-31 mm; 17-70% of normal) fell in the south central areas and locally in the west. Dry conditions continued to prevail in the southeast extending southward into southern Somalia and northern Kenya. In Sudan, rainfall also diminished significantly as most of the country received little or no rain. However, isolated thunderstorms dumped 16-31 mm (90-320% of normal). Kenya and Uganda also marked a pause from the heavy showers of the previous 10-day period. Light rains (1-12 mm; 2-32% of normal) fell over most of the crop growing areas in southwestern Kenya and most of Uganda. However, isolated localities in the southwestern Kenya, the central areas, and along the east coast registered scattered moderate showers as amounts ranged between 20 and 37 mm (80-109% of normal). Isolated moderate to heavy showers (55-65 mm; 141-250% of normal) also fell along the shores of the Lake Victoria in Tanzania. Dry conditions prevailed across most of Tanzania, except spotty showers along the coast. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated dry conditions over Rwanda, Somalia, most of Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. Temperatures departures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C above normal over southwestern Kenya. They were about 2 degrees C below normal over Uganda.
  • September 2006 - Above normal rains (172-284; 93-138 % of normal) fell over the western Ethiopia Plateau, while lighter rains (23-70 mm; 42-120% of normal) fell in most of the central areas. Spotty moderate to heavy rains (86-220 mm; 85-213% of normal) fell over portions of Sudan, while most areas registered 7-69 mm (15-71% of normal). Light rains (20-65 mm; 18-42% of normal) fell over most of Uganda. Above normal rainfall (36-205 mm; 85-284% of normal) soaked southwestern, portions of central, and coastal Kenya. Drier conditions prevailed to the north.
  • September 21-30 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains (52-95 mm; 101-273% of normal) sustained moisture surplus in the western Ethiopian Plateau. However, below normal rainfall (2-57 mm; 19-75% of normal) continued to prevail in the Shewa Province in the central areas. Unseasonably moderate rains (10-72 mm; 148-857% of normal) show signs to a good start in the short rains in central and portions of southwestern Kenya. Coastal areas in Kenya and southward to Tanzania also registered sizable amounts of rains (40-145 mm; 313-249% of normal). Scattered moderate to heavy showers (19-98 mm; 93-260% of normal) fell locally in west central Uganda and in local areas around the Lake Victoria basin. Temperatures were generally 1 to 2 degrees C above normal over southwestern Kenya.
  • September 11-20 2006 - Moderate to heavy showers (34-95 mm; 81-131% of normal) continued to douse most of the western Ethiopian Plateau, while isolated moderate rains (29-41 mm, 87-228% of normal) fell over portions of the central areas. However, below normal rainfall covered most of the Shewa Province near Addis Ababa. Light to moderate rains (2-25 mm; 14-79% of normal) fell over most of Sudan, except isolated showers in the east central (43 mm) and in the south (44-100 mm; 155-246% of normal). Abnormally heavy showers (31-100 mm; 127-375% of normal) pounded local areas in southwest Kenya, and the east coast received 20-33 mm (146-154% of normal). Central Kenya as well as local areas in eastern Uganda and northern Tanzania received 2-46 mm). Temperature departures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C above normal across Kenya.
  • August 2006 - Wet conditions prevailed in Ethiopia, where totals of 200 to 300 mm (100-200% of normal) covered much of the western highlands. Near to above-normal rains fell over Eritrea, and well above-normal rains fell in Djibouti and adjacent portions of northern Somalia. Unusually high totals also registered in parts of southern Somalia. Seasonably dry weather prevailed in southeastern Ethiopia and eastern Kenya, but abnormally heavy rains (25-150 mm, 100-900% of normal) fell in central and northwestern Kenya. The unseasonable rains extended into northeastern Uganda. Sudan saw below-normal rains (50-150 mm, 50-75% of normal) in the east-central and northeastern crop areas, but above-normal rains in the southeast and west. Temperatures averaged near normal.
  • August 21-31 2006 - Abnormally heavy rains (50-150 mm, 110-150% of normal) continued across Ethiopia and Eritrea, and spread into Djibouti and adjacent portions of northern Somalia. The report of 108 mm in Djibouti was over 1,000% of normal. Unusually wet weather (10-25 mm, over 400% of normal) also hit scattered areas of central and southern Somalia, including the Mogadishu area. Long-term drought continued in parts of Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia, as well as in central and eastern Kenya. Seasonably dry weather dominated southeastern Ethiopia and the pastoral areas of Kenya. This period saw below-normal rainfall (10-50 mm, 10-75% of normal) in many parts of Sudan, especially in the east. This was part of a trend toward below normal rainfall in the northeastern agricultural areas of Sudan during August. Temperatures averaged near normal.
  • August 11-20 2006 - Seasonal rains with moderate to heavy downpours (48-116 mm; 98-161% of normal) continued to soak west and central Ethiopia. The heavy rains caused flooding in local areas, especially in the Omo River valley in the southwest. Scattered thunderstorm activity poured moderate to heavy rains (30-76 mm; 94-155% of normal) over portions of eastern, central Sudan, and western Sudan. These rains were particularly welcomed in the Darfur Region. Further to the south, seasonable dryness prevailed across Uganda and the northern areas of Kenya. Isolated light to moderate rains (6-48 mm; 97-333% of normal) fell over parts of central and southwestern Kenya, and along the coast. Temperature departures averaged 1 degree C above normal over Kenya.
  • August 1-10 2006 - Moderate rains (38-50 mm; 92-96% of normal) brought some relief to local areas in the Darfur region of Sudan. However, light rains (1-25 mm) sustained moisture deficit along the border with Chad. Light or no rain (0-35 mm; 0-54%) also increased the cumulative seasonal rainfall deficit in many areas over central Sudan, except a few local areas where rainfall amounts were between 43 and 45 mm (85-108% of normal). However, satellite rainfall estimates indicated widespread heavy showers (50-100 mm) in the agricultural areas of southern Sudan. The western half of Ethiopia also continued to enjoy beneficial rains, although the northern part registered the heaviest amounts (94-113 mm; 82-125% of normal). Local areas in the central part of the country also received 80-92 mm; 103-124% of normal). Unseasonable moderate rains (21-70 mm; 114-357% of normal) continued to soak the areas in the vicinity of Lake Victoria, including southwestern Kenya, southern Uganda, and Rwanda. Lighter rains (1-23 mm; 7-77% of normal) fell in central Kenya, while seasonable dryness prevailed over the eastern half of the country, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and most of Tanzania. Temperature departures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C above normal over Kenya.
  • July 2006 - Rainfall totaled above normal in central and western Ethiopia, and in eastern Sudan, while further to the west, light rains sustained moisture deficit over the Darfur region. Light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) fell over northwestern and central Eritrea, while lighter rains fell in the southeast and over Djibouti. Seasonable dry weather prevailed over eastern Ethiopia, most of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania, except a few isolated showers along coastal areas in Kenya and Tanzania. Southwestern Kenya and Uganda also received rainfall totals between 50 and 100 mm.
  • July 21-31 2006 - Light or no rain (0-3 mm; 0-6% of normal) worsened dry conditions over the Darfur region of Sudan. Rainfall amounts were higher (12-45 mm; 38-98% of normal) in central and eastern Sudan, but still below average in most areas. Moderate to heavy rains (42-292% of normal) soaked western and central Ethiopia bringing about once again flood threats along the Blue Nile basin. Moderate rains but unseasonable rains (9-73 mm; 118-517% of normal) fell over Rwanda, eastern Uganda and the vicinity of Lake Victoria, and locally over southwestern Kenya. Seasonable rains (18-300 mm; 86-116% of normal) fell along coastal Kenya into northeastern Tanzania. Lighter rains (1-25 mm; 11-78% of normal) fell across most of Kenya, while seasonable dryness prevailed over interior Tanzania. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated moisture deficit over northern Eritrea, while southern Eritrea and Djibouti received 1-25 mm. Seasonable dryness prevailed over Somalia. Temperatures departures averaged 1 degrees C above normal across Kenya. They were 1 to 2 degrees C below average over Uganda.
  • July 11-20 2006 - Seasonal rainfall amounts fell across the region, with the heaviest rains (up to 150 mm) in southwestern Sudan and over western and central Ethiopia (40-100 mm, 60-120% of normal). Amounts were around one-half of the totals estimated during July 1-10 in western Ethiopia, reducing the flood threat in the Blue Nile basin. With the exception of northern Darfur, most of Sudanís agricultural areas saw above normal rainfall. Estimated rainfall totaled around 10 to 25 mm (25-50% or normal) in northern Darfur. Seasonably dry weather covered most of Somalia, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania. Light rains (1-25 mm) fell in Uganda. Temperatures were near normal.
  • July 1-10 2006 -
  • June 2006 - Rainfall totaled above normal in Sudanís northern agricultural areas and near normal elsewhere in Sudan. Darfurís northern agricultural areas saw estimated totals at least twice normal. Farther east, above-normal rains (10-50 mm, 100-400% of normal) fell in central Somalia, helping to ease the long-term drought. Seasonal rains covered most of Ethiopia, except for north-central and northeastern areas, where amounts were light (0-30 mm). Rainfall totals in Uganda were below normal (8-40 mm, 8-50% of normal) and generally below normal in Kenya, allowing long-term drought to persist in eastern Kenya. Temperatures averaged 2 to 3 degrees C below normal in southern Kenya, but near normal elsewhere.
  • June 21-30 2006 - Seasonably dry weather covered Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and the pastoral areas of Kenya. Above-normal rains hit western Ethiopia (75-130 mm, 100-200% of normal), while western Kenya experienced seasonably variable amounts of rain (0-30 mm, 0-190% of normal. Northeastern and north-central Ethiopia recorded 0 to 35 mm of rain (0-170% of normal). In Sudan, the south measured generally normal rainfall (25-75 mm), but central areas tended to be on the dry side (0-30 mm, 0-120% of normal). Temperatures averaged near normal except 1 to 3 degrees above normal in central Sudan.
  • June 11-20 2006 - Beneficial rains (12-97 mm; 95-277% of normal) fell over many areas in central Ethiopia and west central Sudan, while rainfall amounts averaged 50-100 mm in the western highlands according to the satellite rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimates were also moderate to heavy (25-100 mm) across southern Sudan, with the heaviest amounts (75-100 mm) in the area south of Darfur. Rainfall was light but seasonable in southwestern Kenya. However, isolated moderate to heavy showers 19-79 mm; 216-251% of normal) fell in areas in the vicinity of Lake Victoria. Unseasonably heavy rains (45-93 mm; 133-811% of normal) also pounded local coastal areas in Kenya and northeastern Tanzania. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated 10-50 mm over northern Uganda, while seasonable dryness prevailed in the southwest as well as in Rwanda, Burundi, and interior Tanzania. Seasonable dry weather also prevailed over northern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and most of southern Somalia. Light rains (1-10 mm) fell over portions of northern Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea. Temperatures were generally 1 to 3 degrees C above normal over Kenya.
  • June 1-10 2006 - Light to moderate rains (2-48 mm; 36-91% of normal) spread across the central areas in Ethiopia, except for isolated areas in the south that received rainfall amounts above 150% of normal. Although early in the season, central Sudan experienced below normal from east to west, while seasonable dryness still prevails in the north. Negligible rains over southwestern Kenya and dry conditions in the northern and eastern areas, as well as across Uganda marked the demise of the long rains in this region. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated seasonable dryness over Rwanda, Burundi, and most of Tanzania. Light rains (1-25 mm) fell over central Somalia, Djibouti, and portions of northern Eritrea. Temperatures were near normal over Kenya. They were 1 to 2 degrees C below normal across Uganda.
  • May 2006 - Rainfall was generally near to above normal except for northern Kenya, central and northern Ethiopia, and interior central Somalia and adjacent areas in southeastern Ethiopia. These areas measured less than 50% of normal rainfall for the month. Thanks largely to anomalous wetness in mid-May, monthly rainfall was more than twice normal in northeastern Sudan. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal.
  • May 21-31 2006 - Heavy showers (50-150 mm, 70-200% of normal) fell over western Ethiopia, while negligible rain fell over north-central areas, and light showers (1-25 mm) peppered the drought-affected areas in the southeast. Although north-central Ethiopia has been dry since mid-May, a break in the rains is typical from May into early June in this part of the country. To the east, beneficial showers spread across northern and central Somalia, but satellite rainfall estimates indicated continued rainfall deficits this season in parts of interior central Somalia. Despite a drop-off in the rain over much of southern Somalia, seasonal accumulations remained generally near to above-normal. Drier weather prevailed in Kenya away from some heavy showers along the coast and the west. Cumulative rainfall since March 1 has been near to above normal over southern, coastal, and extreme northern Kenya, while long-term deficits remained in some pastoral areas in the north and east. Above-normal rains extended from southern Sudan into Uganda. Tanzania reported seasonably dry weather. Drier weather returned to central Sudan, including Darfur Province. Regional temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal, except slightly above normal in central Sudan.
  • May 11-20 2006 - Showers (10-50 mm, 100-200% of normal) benefited Somalia, including the dry areas in central and northern Somalia. More rain is needed, however, in central and northern areas of the country, where estimated cumulative rainfall since March has totaled around 50% of normal, according to satellite estimates. Similar beneficial rains also affected southern Ethiopia, easing long-term drought, but significant seasonal deficits remained in extreme southeastern parts of the country, which generally saw less than 25 mm this period. Dry weather prevailed over central parts of Ethiopia, but a dry period is not uncommon from the last half of May well into June as the belg rains end. Beneficial to locally excessive rains fell over western Ethiopia, amounts locally exceeding 100 mm. To the west, with the ITCZ advancing north of normal, rains spread into much of southern Darfur in western Sudan and as far north as Khartoum and beyond in eastern Sudan. Dry weather prevailed in northern and eastern Kenya, allowing drought to continue in some pastoral areas, but above-normal rains again fell in the southwest, near Lake Victoria. Above-normal rains (50-150 mm) extended from Uganda into Burundi, Rwanda, and western Tanzania. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal across the region.
  • May 1-10 2006 - Heavy showers (50-200 mm, 110-320% of normal) hit southwestern Kenya near Lake Victoria as well as south-central, southern, and south coastal areas of the country. Although the excessive rainfall increased the risk of flooding, the moisture further diminished the area of long-term drought, as did moderate to heavy showers (25-75 mm, 100-200% of normal) across southern Ethiopia and southern Somalia. Drought continued over some pastoral areas of northern, central, and eastern Kenya, as well as southeastern Ethiopia and central Somalia, as these areas saw generally less than 10 mm of rain this period. Rainfall was also negligible over northern Somalia, in contrast to widespread showers the preceding period. Abundant rains covered most of the crop areas of Ethiopia, including those western areas that had started off on a dry note this season. Heavy to excessive rains of up to 200 mm struck coastal Tanzania, but more moderate rains (25-75 mm) fell across northern Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Above-normal rains (50-100 mm) fell across southern Sudan, benefiting some areas that had seen a slow start to the seasonal rains, but the showers may have triggered local flooding. The rains advanced northward into Darfur, but it is uncertain if the rainy season has begun or if these are pre-season showers. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal over the region, except for 2 to 4 degrees C above normal in central Sudan.
  • April 2006 - Heavy rains brought major drought relief and some flooding to this region. The greatest totals (over 300 mm) accumulated in southern Ethiopia, northeastern and western Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern and eastern Tanzania. Monthly rainfall exceeded normal from Eritrea southward through Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, eastern and southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania. Although nearly the entire region saw above-normal rains this month, the rains were slow to move into western Ethiopia and southern Sudan, and these areas experienced below-normal moisture. Temperatures region-wide averaged near normal except for 2 to 3 degrees C below normal in Uganda and western Kenya and 2 to 3 degrees C above normal in Sudan.
  • April 21-39 2006 - Heavy showers (50-100 mm, 110-150% of normal) spread across southern Ethiopia and into adjacent portions of northeastern Kenya. Satellite-estimated rainfall exceeded 200 mm locally in extreme southern Somalia, with more moderate rains (25-75 mm) over the rest of the country. Other parts of Ethiopia generally saw normal to above-normal rains (10-50 mm, 70-160% of normal), while abnormally dry weather (0-15 mm, 0-50% of normal) continued in western Ethiopia (Benishangul and western Oromiya regions). Outside of the latter area, the belg and main rainy seasons have been progressing well in Ethiopia, and plentiful rains have also characterized the Somalia rainy season. Besides the northeast, Kenya also measured heavy rains (50-190 mm, 100-260% of normal) near Lake Victoria, the central highlands, and along the eastern coast. Flooding has been reported in Kenya, but long-term drought persisted in parts of eastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and portions of Somalia. Farther west, heavy rains (75-100 mm) covered eastern Uganda, while in Tanzania rainfall varied from negligible in central areas to excessive (over 200 mm) along the east coast. In Sudan, drier-than-normal weather continued across south-central areas, and seasonably dry weather prevailed from Darfur eastward. Seasonably heavy rains (25-75 mm) fell across the south. Regional temperatures were mostly near normal except 1 to 3 degrees C below normal in Uganda and 2 to 4 degrees C above normal in Sudan outside of the south.
  • April 11-20 2006 - In contrast to the previous period, rainfall was light (0-25 mm, 0-25% of normal) over the pastoral areas of northern and eastern Kenya, as well as eastern Ethiopia and central and northern Somalia. Satellite-estimated totals of 10 to 50 mm covered southern Somalia, but these amounts were generally below normal for this time of the year, when the main rainy season is becoming established. Variable but mostly seasonal rainfall (5-60 mm, 30-200% of normal) fell across the crop-growing areas of Ethiopia, except for a portion of western Ethiopia, which saw negligible rains and where the rainy season has been delayed. This is part of an area that has seen dry weather this month that extends across southern Sudan north of Equatoria. Above-normal rains fell across western Kenya (75-150 mm, 110 to 200% of normal), extreme southern Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania. Despite pockets of improvement from the heavy downpours in early April, long-term drought persisted in much of eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and southern and central Somalia. Temperatures generally averaged near normal except around 2 degrees C below normal in Uganda and southwestern Kenya.
  • April 1-10 2006 - Much needed rains fell across the drought laden areas in Kenya. The northern sector received unusually heavy rains (35-302 mm; 274-628% of normal). Moderate to heavy showers (59-142 mm; 11-205% of normal) also soaked the central and southwestern areas. Beneficial rains (20-120 mm; 101-418% of normal) fell over southern and central Ethiopia, while the western and far eastern areas remained dry, save local areas that received light rains (2-13 mm; 3-22% of normal). Satellite rainfall estimates indicated heavy downpours (100-250 mm) as well over eastern and western Tanzania, which helped alleviate any residual dryness in this region. Heavy rains (100-200 mm) also sustained moist soils over southern Somalia. Rainfall estimates ranged between 50 and 100 mm across Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, northwestern Somalia, Djibouti, and eastern Eritrea. They were lighter locally over northeastern and southwestern Tanzania. Seasonable dryness prevailed most of Sudan, western Eritrea, and northern Somalia. Temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees C below normal over most of Kenya and Ethiopia.
  • March 11-20 2006 - Wet conditions slowed down in southwest Kenya as most location registered little or no rain. Amounts ranged between 1 and 14 mm (5-38% of normal). Isolated areas in this bread basket of Kenya received beneficial rains (22-56 mm; 89-130% of normal), though. Sizable amounts of rains (43-53 mm; 188-203% of normal) also fell over portions of the climatologically semi-arid areas of eastern Kenya. Dry conditions continued to prevail in north, except locally in the northwest. Moderate rains (18-53 mm; 82-222% of normal) benefited central and southern , while seasonable dryness prevailed over Sudan. In the southern part of the region, heavy rains (92-147 mm; 235-327% of normal) soaked local areas along the northern coast of Tanzania. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated light to moderate rains (10-25 mm) over the southern areas of Somalia and Sudan, most of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. The rainfall estimates were locally heavy (50-75 mm) over portions of northwestern and southwestern Tanzania. Dry conditions prevailed over central and northern Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea. Temperature departures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C below normal.
  • March 1-10 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains (5-92 mm; 97-653% of normal) sustained moisture over southwestern Kenya and pockets in the northwest, marking a good start to the long season rains. Locally moderate rains (9-46 mm; 100-479% of normal) also fell over pockets in southern Ethiopia and southern Sudan. Elsewhere, satellite rainfall estimates indicated heavy downpours (75-200 mm) across southern and central Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. Rainfall estimates were lighter and ranged between 10 and 50 mm over most of Uganda, while dry conditions prevailed across most of Ethiopia and Somalia, worsening the drought situation in those areas. Seasonable dryness prevailed over Djibouti, most of Eritrea and northern Sudan. Temperature departures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C below normal across the region.

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