Subsaharan Africa Weather Analysis 2006

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Annual summary of areas of likely flooding

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Preliminary Monthly Weather Analysis
Subsaharan Africa 2006

From the African Desk, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Note: This information should be used with caution.
Weather data based on preliminary reports.

December 11-20 2006 - Favorably drier weather covered much of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, easing the flood threat, but heavy rains continued across Tanzania. Below-normal rainfall again affected parts of central and southern Mozambique and southern Zimbabwe, but beneficial showers dampened key maize areas in South Africa. In central Africa, seasonably dry weather prevailed over CAR, but amounts of 75 to 150 mm (125-200% of normal) fell over southern DRC and coastal Gabon. Temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees C below normal over much of the region. >
December 1-10 2006 - Unfavorably wet conditions continued over the Horn of Africa, although rainfall totals diminished in southern Somalia and Kenya. The remains of Tropical Storm Anita contributed to heavy rains in Madagascar, but overall rainfall across southern Africa was below normal. In central Africa, up to 200 mm of rain fell in southern Congo near the Gabon border, but overall rainfall in the region generally ranged from nil in CAR to 10 to 50 mm across DRC. Temperatures averaged near normal.
November 21-30 2006 - Heavy rains continued to cause flood concerns in Somalia and Kenya. Beneficial rains brought relief to portions of the northern areas of Mozambique and Madagascar. Light rains fell across most of South Africa. In central Africa, dry conditions prevailed across most of Cameroon, CAR, and the northern edges of Congo and DRC, as the ITCZ pushed even further south during the period. Light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) sustained moisture across Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, most of Congo, and central DRC. Heavy rains (75-150 mm) pounded southeastern DRC.
November 11-20 2006 - Heavy rains continued to cause flood concerns in Somalia and Kenya. Beneficial rains fell in southern Africa, Madagascar, portions of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. Dryness persisted over northeastern Mozambique. In central Africa, rainfall eased in southern Cameroon and shifted south as heavy downpours (100-200 mm) pounded most of Gabon and southern Congo. Lighter rains (10-75 mm) fell across northern and central Congo, DRC and southern Cameroon. Dry conditions prevailed across northern Cameroon and most of CAR.
October 21-31 2006 - Flooding rains hit Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. Unseasonably dry weather covered eastern areas of southern Africa, including Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, eastern Zambia, and parts of South Africa. In central Africa, moderate to heavy rains (50 to 160 mm) fell over western Cameroon, Gabon, and portions of CAR and DRC. Temperatures averaged near normal.
October 11-20 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains continued to sustain moisture surplus over the Kwazulu/Natal Province of South Africa. Unseasonable rains fell over local areas in Namibia and Botswana. Moderate to heavy rains fell along coastal Kenya and over northeastern Tanzania. In central Africa, moderate to heavy rains (16-48 mm; 135-242% of normal) fell over local areas in northern Cameroon. Light rains (3-11 mm (7-50% of normal) fell over most areas in CAR. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains (50-100 mm) over central Gabon, most of Congo, and the central areas of DRC. Dry conditions prevailed on southern DRC, northwestern and southwestern Congo, northern and southern Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea.
October 1-10 2006 - Rainfall diminished over eastern Africa, although scattered showers sustained moisture in local crop areas in southwestern Kenya. Early showers covered most areas in southern Africa and heavy rains continued to fall locally in the Kwazulu/Natal Province of South Africa. In central Africa, the heaviest rains (50-100 mm) according to the satellite rainfall estimates were confined to local areas in central Cameroon, northern CAR, and northeastern and central DRC. Lighter rains (10-50 mm) fell over northern and southern Cameroon, most of CAR, Equatorial Guinea, northern and eastern Gabon, and most of Congo. Dry conditions prevailed along the coasts of Gabon and Congo.
September 21-30 2006 - Beneficial rains fell over the crop growing areas of Niger, while rainfall diminished in the groundnut basin of Senegal. Showers sustained moisture surplus over the western Ethiopian Plateau, and moderate rains signaled a good start to the rainy season in parts of Kenya. Unseasonably wet weather raised flood concerns over the Kwazulu/Natal Province of South Africa. In central Africa, moderate to heavy rains (39-163 mm; 90-213% of normal) persisted over northern and coastal Cameroon. Western Gabon received 74-94 mm (150-205% of normal), while drier weather prevailed to the east and over most of CAR.
September 11-20 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains covered portions of the Sahel and the Ethiopian Plateau, while rainfall was below normal over most of Niger and western Mali. Unseasonably wet weather prevailed locally over portions of southwestern Kenya. In central Africa, the heavy rains (57-288 mm; 86-191% of normal) were confined to northern and coastal Cameroon as well as local areas in CAR. Drier conditions prevailed across Gabon.
August 21-31 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains covered most of the Sahel, while abnormally wet weather continued in Ethiopia. Very heavy rains struck Nigeria and parts of Cameroon. Unseasonably wet weather spread across South Africa. In central Africa, below-normal rainfall (10-50 mm, 25-75% of normal) extended from Central African Republic southward into northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Unseasonably wet weather (25-50 mm, 200-400% of normal) hit southwestern DRC. Very heavy rains struck western Cameroon, with estimated totals as much as 250 mm near the coast. Temperatures ranged from 2 degrees C below normal in Cameroon to 2 degrees C above normal in CAR.
August 11-20 2006 - Thunderstorm activity brought relief in areas to southeastern Niger. The ground nut basin of Senegal continued to receive beneficial rains. Rainfall deficits caused concern for crop production in Niger and western Mali. Heavy rains caused flooding in southwestern Ethiopia.
August 1-10 2006 - Rainfall amounts were below average over most areas in the Sahel, and dry conditions worsened at local areas in southeastern Niger. Lighter rains in Ethiopia reduced flooding threats along the Blue Nile. Unusually heavy rains fell in local areas along the east coast of South Africa. In central Africa, heavy rains (75-200 mm) pounded the northern half of Cameroon, southern Chad, and the northern areas of CAR. Lighter rains (10-75 mm) fell over the southern half of CAR, northern and central DRC, and northern Congo. Seasonable dryness prevailed over the southern areas of DRC, central and southern Congo, most of Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and southern Cameroon.
July 21-31 2006 - Moisture deficit prevailed across most of the Sahel and long tern dryness continue to worsen over southeastern Niger. Heavy rains may cause local flooding in areas along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. In central Africa, heavy rains (75-150 mm, 110-200% of normal) again fell in CAR, further easing dryness concerns. Moderate rains (10-50 mm) fell over the northern areas of DRC and Congo, while seasonably dry weather prevailed to the south, as well as over Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Sao Tome and Principe Islands. Estimated rainfall totals ranged between 10 and 75 mm across most of Cameroon.
July 11-20 2006 - Above-normal rains benefited much of the Sahel region, especially Niger and Chad, although rainfall deficits continued in parts of the Sahel. Lighter rains fell in the Ethiopian highlands, reducing the flood threat in Ethiopia and Sudan. In central Africa, heavy rains (75-150 mm, 110-200% of normal) again fell in CAR, further easing dryness concerns. Moderate rains (10-50 mm) fell over northern DRC, while seasonably dry weather prevailed to the south, as well as over Gabon and southern Congo. Estimated rainfall totals reached 300 mm in coastal Cameroon, and 100 to 200 mm totals in other parts of the country. Temperatures were near normal.
July 1-10 2006 -
June 21-30 2006 - Hot, dry weather affected Niger and Chad, but good rains swept across Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso. In central Africa, abnormally dry weather extended from CAR into northern DRC (0-30 mm, 0-25% of normal). Temperatures averaged near normal.
June 11-20 2006 - Rainfall amounts diminished in many areas in the Sahel, while local areas in the Gulf of Guinea region received plentiful. Rainfall was also heavy in local areas along coastal Kenya and Tanzania. The rainfall season is yet to start in portions of central Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti. In central Africa, rainfall (10-75 mm) spread across Cameroon, southern Chad, CAR, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe Islands, and the northern areas of Gabon, Congo, and DRC. Lighter rains (1-10 mm) fell over the central areas of Gabon, Congo, and DRC, while seasonable dryness prevailed in the north.
June 1-10 2006 - Moderate to heavy rains confirmed the good start to the rainy season in many locations in the Sahel. Heavy rains also fell over portions of the Gulf of Guinea region. A seasonable decrease in rainfall amounts was evident in many areas in the Greater Horn of Africa including southwestern Kenya. In central Africa, consistent with the northward progression of the ITCZ, seasonable dryness prevailed over the southern areas of DRC, Congo, and Gabon. Light to moderate rains (1-50 mm) fell over the northern half of DRC, central and northern Congo, and eastern Gabon. Rainfall estimates ranged between 1 and 25 mm over western Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and southern Cameroon. Locally heavy rains 75-100 mm fell over northern Cameroon, and favorable rains returned to CAR.
May 21-31 2006 - Unseasonably heavy rains fell over the western Sahel as the ITCZ advanced northward, while long-term drought continued over southeastern Ethiopia and parts of Somalia and Kenya. In central Africa, following widespread wetness in mid-May, rainfall tended toward the norm this period, although CAR saw below normal rains in some areas and DRC experienced above normal rains in the south and interior west. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal.
May 11-20 2006 - Widespread showers eased dryness over Somalia and southern Ethiopia. Heavy rains swept across the coast of West Africa from Côte d’Ivoire to Nigeria. Unseasonably heavy rains again hit South Africa’s Cape Province. In central Africa, a turn toward dry weather benefited Gabon, southern Congo, and western DRC, while above normal rains, sometimes exceeding 100 mm, extended from CAR through northern and central DRC. Temperatures tended to average slightly below normal.
May 1-20 2006 - Although long-term drought continued over portions of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, heavy showers hit southwestern, southern and coastal Kenya, and western Ethiopia. Beneficial rains fell over southern Chad and northern Nigeria. In central Africa, heavy rains hit northeastern DRC, where satellite estimates showed 75 mm to over 100 mm. Moderate to heavy showers affected the rest of the region except for southern DRC, where the dry season has become established. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal.
April 21-30 2006 - Heavy rains hit southern Ethiopia and parts of Kenya and Somalia, easing long-term drought but increasing flood potential. In central Africa, above-normal wetness covered the Central African Republic, while below-normal rains fell over central and eastern DRC. A beneficial change to lower rainfall amounts occurred over western DRC and southern Congo, with estimated totals less than 75 mm except for locally higher amounts. Temperatures were near to slightly below normal.
April 11-20 2006 - Abnormally dry weather extended from Nigeria to southern Sudan, while unseasonably heavy rains fell from Congo southward into Namibia and southeastward into central and southern South Africa. Drier weather returned to the African Horn. In central Africa, satellite estimates indicated abnormally heavy rains (75-200 mm) across central and southern Congo, northern, western, and southern DRC, and southern Gabon. Amounts may have exceeded 200 mm locally in western DRC south of Kinshasa. Temperatures generally averaged 1 to 3 degrees C below normal in the wet areas.
April 1-10 2006 - Much needed rains relieved Kenya from severe dryness and sustained moisture over portions of Tanzania, Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. Little rain fell over southern Africa as the ITCZ retreated further to the north. In central Africa, According to the satellite rainfall estimates heavy downpours (75-250 mm) pounded southwestern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Sao Tome and Principe. Rainfall estimates were moderate (25-75 mm) over most of southern Cameroon, central and western CAR, Gabon, Congo and most of DRC. Dry conditions prevailed over Chad, northern Cameroon, and eastern CAR.
March 11-20 2006 - Rainfall diminished in southwestern Kenya, but was abundant over central Ethiopia. The Maize Triangle of South Africa continued to enjoy beneficial rains, while most areas in Madagascar registered moisture deficits. In central Africa, seasonable dryness continued to prevail over Chad and the northern areas of Cameroon and CAR. Light to moderate rains (10-25 mm) eased the dryness over southern Cameroon, and sustained moisture over northern Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. Heavy showers pounded Sao Tome and Principe. Moderate to heavy rains (25-75 mm) prevailed across Congo and DRC.
March 1-10 2006 - Extremely heavy rains caused local flooding along coastal Mozambique, while beneficial rains continued to fall over Zimbabwe. Beneficial rains also fell over southwestern Kenya. Dry conditions continued to raise concerns over drought situation in central Ethiopia. In central Africa, seasonable dryness continued to prevail over southern Chad and northern Cameroon. Light to moderate rains (10-25 mm) fell over central Cameroon, while moisture deficit was evident in the southern areas. Moderate to heavy rains (25-75 mm) fell over most of CAR, DRC, northern and central Congo, and most of Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. Heavy downpours (75-150 mm) pounded Sao Tome and Principe and eastern DRC.
February 21-28 2006 - Heavy rains continued to soak portions of the Maize Triangle in South Africa causing flooding in local areas in the Mpumalanga Province. Heavy rains also fell over Namibia and Botswana. Preseason rains arrived in the dry areas of Kenya and southern Ethiopia. In central Africa, seasonable dryness continued to prevail over southern Chad, northern Cameroon, and eastern CAR. Light to moderate rains (10-50 mm) fell across southern Cameroon, most of Congo and DRC. Showers were heavier (75-150 mm) over Sao Tome and Principe, Equatorial Guinea, along coastal Gabon, southern Congo, and locally over southern DRC.
January 11-20 2006 - Heavy rains continued to soak central Mozambique, Zimbabwe. Unusually heavy rains fell over northern Namibia. The Maize Triangle in South Africa continue to register below normal rainfall. In central Africa, seasonable dryness prevailed over most of Cameroon, CAR, Equatorial Guinea, and DRC, while heavy rains (75-150 mm) soaked southeastern Gabon, portions of central and southeastern DRC. Moderate to heavy rains (25-75 mm) fell over most of Congo, western DRC, and northern Gabon.