Subsaharan Africa Weather Analysis 2000

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Preliminary Monthly Weather Analysis -
Subsaharan Africa 2000

From the African Desk, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Note: This information should be used with caution.
Weather data are based on preliminary reports.

December 21-31 2000 - Dryness persisted across much of Kenya and northeastern Uganda, while light rains were observed over much of Tanzania. Heavy rains returned in northern Mozambique and much of Zimbabwe. Madagascar received good rains along its east and west coasts. Light rains fell in much of the Free State Province of South Africa.
December 11-20 2000 - The rainy seasons in the Greater Horn of Africa and South Africa continued. The heaviest rains occurred in Kenya and along the east coast of Madagascar. Heavy rains also fell in central Africa, particularly in southern DRC, while seasonably dry conditions prevailed across much of West Africa.
December 1-10 2000 - Warm, dry weather covered the drought-afflicted areas of northern and eastern Kenya and neighboring Ethiopia, while wet conditions persisted from Tanzania to Zambia. Heavy rainfall diminished in northern Mozambique, and abundant rains relieved dryness in southern Angola. In central Africa, moderate to heavy rains (50-50 mm) covered all but the far north of DRC, with heavy to very heavy rains (131-233 mm, 166-334% of normal) in Gabon and central Congo. Temperatures were normal.
November 21-30 2000 - Abundant rains persisted over much of southern Africa, while above-normal rains eased long-term drought over Tanzania and parts of Kenya. In contrast, rainfall continued sparse over northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. The rainy season is off to a slow start in southern Angola and northern Namibia.
November 11-20 2000 - Above-normal rains continued over South Africa, Zimbabwe, and northern Mozambique, with very heavy rains striking Kwazulu-Natal in South Africa. Rainfall generally increased over East Africa, but pastoral areas of southern Ethiopia and eastern Kenya recorded little moisture. In West Africa, rainfall was mainly confined to the coastal area, but unseasonable rains fell in western Mauritania and south-central Mali.
November 1-10 2000 - The rainy season continued its strong start in southern Africa, with above-normal rains in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Malawi, Botswana, and parts of Mozambique. In East Africa, above-normal rains fell in parts of central and western Kenya, but amounts were below normal in most northern, eastern and southern areas of Kenya, as well as northern and eastern Tanzania, allowing continuation of the long-term drought.In central Africa, light to moderate rains (3-74 mm, 13-180% of normal) fell in southern CAR, southwestern Cameroon, central and northern Congo, and northwestern DRC. Heavy to very heavy rains (109-376 mm, 111-561% of normal) fell in Gabon, southern Congo, and isolated locations in southwestern Cameroon and southeastern CAR. Satellite estimates put rainfall over central and southern DRC at 100 to 200 mm. Temperatures were 2 degrees C below normal in southwestern Cameroon , southern Gabon and southwestern DRC.
October 21-31 2000 - The rainy season came to a close over most of interior West Africa, while scattered rains continued to characterize the secondary season over East Africa. There was little change in the long-term drought in Kenya and Tanzania, though rainfall did increase in northwest Kenya. Rainfall picked up across most of southern Africa, as heavy rains struck South Africa's summer crop region. In central Africa, light to moderate rains (1-95 mm, 7-170% of normal) fell in southern CAR, northern and southeastern Cameroon, northern Gabon, central and southern Congo, and western, central, and southern DRC. Isolated heavy rains (101-219 mm, 93-278% of normal) fell in central and southern Gabon, southern Cameroon and northern Congo. Satellite estimates gave 50 to100 mm to eastern DRC. Temperatures were 2 degrees C below normal in Cameroon and 2 to 3 degrees above normal in CAR, northwestern DRC and southeastern Gabon.
October 11-20 2000 - The ITCZ retreated southward in most places with respect to its position during the last period, except over Senegal, southern Mauritania, and the far western end of Mali, where a relative northward surge occurred. As a result, abundant rains fell in this region. Meanwhile long-term rainfall deficits continued to hurt Kenya.
October 1-10 2000 - The short rains started on schedule in the African Horn, with heavy showers striking Somalia and southern Ethiopia. Unseasonably heavy rains helped to reduce deficits in Burkina Faso, but the growing season’s accumulated rainfall remained below normal in southern Burkina Faso. Light rains over Niger, Senegal and Gambia had little impact on the deficits in these countries. In central Africa, light to moderate rains (1-100 mm, 109-169% of normal) fell in Cameroon, southern CAR, western DRC, Congo and Gabon. Isolated heavy to very heavy rains (106-231 mm, 85-346% of normal) hit southern Cameroon, southwestern Equatorial Guinea, southeastern Gabon, northeastern Congo and southwestern CAR. Satellite estimates indicated 100 to 200 mm over eastern DRC. Temperatures were mostly near normal.
September 21-30 2000 - The ITCZ in West Africa retreated southward 1.5 degrees latitude to 16.5 N, which equals the 1979-98 mean. The June-September mean location of 17.8 N also equals the 1979-98 mean, but is 0.4 degrees south of last year's position. Over East Africa, the ITCZ retreated 1.8 degrees southward to 14.1 N. This is the lowest latitude for this time of the year since records began in 1988, and is 1.0 degrees south of the 1988-99 mean. The June-September mean of 15.2 N is 0.4 degrees south of the 1988-99 mean. The ITCZ was south of normal from eastern Mali to Sudan. As the ITCZ movement implies, rainfall amounts decreased sharply in the Sahel. The overall season appears to be drier than last year across the region and drier than the long-term mean. The driest areas during the past growing season include west-central Sudan; southern Burkina Faso and adjacent parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin; Senegal and Gambia; and parts of Niger, Chad, Mali, and Mauritania. The rainy season may have ended early in central Ethiopia, following a late start. Severe drought persisted in Kenya and northern Tanzania.
September 11-20 2000 - Rainfall was near or above normal across much of the Sahel, except western Mauritania, parts of western Mali, and central Chad where little rains were observed. Abundant rains also fell across much of the Gulf of Guinea region. Light rains were observed over Kenya and Uganda, while long term rainfall deficits continued over Ethiopia, Somalia, and Tanzania. Seasonably dry conditions prevailed across much of southern Africa, except the southern part, which benefitted from the northward intrusion of the mid-latitude systems of the southern hemisphere.
September 1-10 2000 - During September 1-10, 2000, the ITCZ in West Africa (10 degrees W to 10 degrees E) dropped sharply southward to 17.4 degrees north latitude, 1.3 degrees latitude south of the August 21 - 31 position and 0.8 degrees south of the 1979 - 1998 mean position of 18.2N. This is the farthest south location for this period since 1984, when it dipped to 16.6N. Over East Africa (20 to 35 degrees east longitude), the ITCZ retreated southward 0.5 degrees latitude to 15.3N, which is 0.7 degrees south of the 1988-99 mean. This was the fourth consecutive period that the ITCZ was south of normal in the east and the second week it was south of normal in the west. As a consequence, rainfall amounts were below normal and temperatures above normal from Senegal to Sudan. The rainy season may have ended prematurely in the northern-most crop areas from Niger to western Sudan.
August 21-31 2000 - The ITCZ in West Africa (10 degrees W to 10 degrees E) retreated southward 0.7 degrees latitude. Its mean position of latitude 18.7 degrees north was slightly south of the 1979-98 mean position of 19.0N. Though the ITCZ has peaked and started its seasonal migration southward, there was little evidence of the rain band sliding southward across West Africa. The overall rainy season has been generally favorable across West Africa, with the rains mostly near or north of their long-term location since April. To the east, however, rainfall appeared to be much lighter in central Sudan, with temperatures above normal, reflecting a more significant shift in the ITCZ southward in this part of Africa. Over East Africa (20 to 35 degrees east longitude), the ITCZ retreated southward 0.8 degrees latitude to 15.8N, which is 1.0 degrees south of the 1988-99 mean. This was the third consecutive period that the ITCZ was south of normal in the east and, as a consequence, rains have continued erratic and spotty in Sudan while temperatures have been above normal.
August 11-20 2000 - In West Africa, the ITCZ advanced northward 1.2 degrees latitude, bringing more rain to parts of the Sahel, where abundant rains were confined to the southern border of Mauritania, Gambia, the southern areas of the Senegal peanut basin, Burkina Faso, and the northern parts of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin. Light to moderate rains prevailed across much of northern Senegal, Niger, Chad, and the southern parts of the Gulf of Guinea region. In East Africa, the Lake Victoria basin and parts of central Kenya picked up some relief from long-term dryness as abundant rains fell in the region. However, dryness continued across much of Kenya and Tanzania. Seasonable dryness prevailed across southern Africa.
August 1-10 2000 - During the period, the ITCZ in West Africa (10 degrees W to 10 degrees E) retreated southward by 1.3 degrees latitude. Its mean position of 18.2 degrees north was 0.9 degrees south of the 1979-1998 mean position. The ITCZ typically progresses northward during this period of the year, so the southward retreat is unusual. The implication is that the seasonal rains have stalled, and the rainfall analysis for August 1-10 does indicate that the leading edge of the rains in the Sahel failed to advance northward, and even slipped southward in places. Nevertheless, heavy rains relieved dryness in Senegal, though dry conditions continued in Mauritania, northeast Mali and eastern Niger. Dryness also developed in central Sudan. Above-normal rains fell in west-central Kenya, but long-term drought persisted over most of interior Kenya and northern Tanzania.
July 21-31 2000 - The ITCZ remained quasi-stationary, advancing northward by just 0.3 degree of latitude on average. It moved north of the long-term mean over eastern Mauritania and western Mali but remained south of the mean from eastern Niger to western Sudan. As a result, rains generally tracked northward into the northern Sahel. Northern Mauritania, northern Mali and northern Niger recorded light to moderate rains while amounts in the central Sahel ranged from moderate to heavy. Relatively dry areas in West Africa include Senegal, Gambia, western Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and northeastern Mali. In central Africa, heavier rains fell in Cameroon, CAR and DRC. In Eastern Africa, showers dampened coastal areas of Tanzania and Kenya as well as western Kenya, but little rain fell over drought-stricken northern Kenya. In southern Africa, seasonably dry conditions continued, although showers fell in the Comoros Islands and the east coasts of Mozambique and Madagascar.
July 11-20 2000 - The ITCZ advanced to about one degree of latitude north of normal in the west, with the greatest progress over Mali and eastern Mauritania. The rains responded positively in the Sahel to the ITCZ movement as central Mali, central Niger and central Chad reported light to moderate rainfall. Moderate to heavy rains fell in the West African countries of Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, northern Benin, southern Mali, southern Niger, and central and southern Chad, as well as in central Sudan, the west coast of South Africa and the east coast of Madagascar. Unseasonably dry weather covered most of Senegal and Mauritania, as well as parts of Mali’s northern crop areas. Severe long-term rainfall deficits continued over Kenya and northern Tanzania. Temperatures were near normal in most places, except in northeastern Mali and southwestern South Africa, where temperatures fell below normal, and in Guinea, northeastern Sudan and Zimbabwe, where temperatures averaged above normal.
July 1-10 2000 - The ITCZ accelerated northward after being nearly stationary, bringing moderate rains to the southern Sahel and moderate to heavy rainfalls to West African countries south of the 15th parallel. Light rains fell in western Senegal, southern Mauritania, central Mali, northern Côte d’Ivoire and central Niger. Moderate to heavy rains fell over southern parts of Niger and Mali, Burkina Faso and the Guinean countries extending from Benin to southern Côte d’Ivoire. Drier weather over central Côte d’Ivoire and parts of Ghana indicated that the mid-summer dry season may have started in the Guinea Gulf region. Seasonal dry weather persisted over the northern Sahel. Abundant rains fell in southern Chad, Central African Republic and northern DRC. Increased rains likely signaled the start of the main rainy season over north-central Ethiopia. Drought continued over Kenya and Tanzania, but moderate rains fell over west-central Kenya. The dry season remained apparent in large parts of eastern and southern Africa, though the eastern coast of Madagascar reported moderate to heavy rains.
June 11-20 2000 - The seasonal rains progressed northward in the Sahel, though the rains have been somewhat slow to start in Senegal and central Niger. Drought continued unabated in northern Kenya, while light to moderate rains brought only minor respite from drought in the south. Abnormal dryness extended into Ethiopia and Somalia. Central and eastern Ethiopia and most of Somalia have remained dry since mid May. Little rain has fallen this month in southeastern Sudan. Seasonably dry conditions continued in southern Africa except for persistent moderate to heavy rains over northeastern Madagascar.
June 1-10 2000 - Drought persisted over interior Kenya and northern interior Tanzania, though heavy rains fell over coastal areas and light rain fell over the dry areas of northern Kenya. Much of Ethiopia, except the west, was dry for the third consecutive 10-day period. Moderate to heavy rains fell over central Africa, with the heaviest amounts in western Cameroon, CAR, northern Gabon and DRC. The progress of the seasonal rains in the Sahel continued to be near normal, though the rains have been slow to advance far into Mali. Light to moderate rains fell in southern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Over West Africa, heavy rain eased earlier dryness in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Abundant rains also fell in central Nigeria and southern Liberia. Seasonably dry conditions dominated southern Africa. Heavy rain fell over northeastern Madagascar.
May 21-31 2000 - Dry conditions continued over much of eastern Africa, except the Lake Victoria basin, southern Sudan, and western Ethiopia. Light to moderate rains fell over central Africa, including northern DRC (former Zaire), Congo, Gabon, Cameroon, and CAR. The rains extended to the Gulf of Guinea region from Benin into Côte d’Ivoire, easing dryness. The Sahel continued to be dry, except for Burkina Faso, where abundant rains fell. Seasonably dry conditions covered southern Africa.
May 11-20 2000 - Drought continued to worsen in Kenya and Tanzania, as northern Tanzania and the interior of Kenya measured little rainfall. Showers further relieved dryness in western Ethiopia, but the rest of the country saw drier weather. Diminished rains fell in Somalia, easing flood potential. In southern Africa, light to moderate rain continued to dominate the east coast of South Africa, the Mascarene Islands and Madagascar. In central Africa, the rainfall belt moved to northern DRC, leaving light to moderate rain over CAR, Gabon, Cameroon, northern Congo and northern DRC. In West Africa, dryness intensified in Ghana and parts of Cote d’Ivôire, Togo, and Benin, while rains increased over parts of the southern Sahel and also in Guinea, Liberia, and coastal Nigeria.
May 1-10 2000 - Heavy rains further relieved drought in Ethiopia but caused floods in Somalia. Drought in interior Kenya and northern Tanzania worsened as very little rain fell over these areas. In southern Africa, light to moderate rain fell over the eastern coast while unseasonable rains fell in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia. The rainfall belt over central Africa is gradually diminishing, with the usual widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall gradually giving way to moderate to heavy rainfall. In West Africa, scattered showers fell over southern parts of Burkina Faso and Mali in the Sahel as light to moderate rain dominated the rainfall pattern over the Gulf of Guinea coast.
April 21-30 2000 - Light to moderate rainfall eased the drought over Somalia and Ethiopia as widespread showers spread across both countries. In contrast, severe drought worsened to the south, as little rain fell over most of Kenya and western and central Tanzania. In southern Africa, the rainy season continued to recede, with heaviest amounts along the east coasts and little rain in the interior. Moderate to very heavy rains fell in most of central Africa, the heaviest amounts over northeastern DRC. In western Africa, the Sahel remained seasonably dry, while Gulf of Guinea coastal areas saw patches of light to heavy rainfall. Southwest Mauritania and northern Senegal again reported above normal temperatures.
April 11-20 2000 - Moderate to heavy rainfall eased drought over the central areas of Ethiopia, but drought persisted over the Somali region. Little rain fell in Kenya and southern and central Somalia, as drought persisted. The storm activity over Madagascar and Mozambique has been gradually giving way to calmer weather conditions as the rainfall belt tracks north of the southern African region, though above-normal rains lingered over South Africa. The ITCZ oscillated between latitudes 10 and 15 degrees N over West Africa and between 9 and 14 degrees N over central and East Africa. Most of central Africa continued to report moderate to very heavy rainfall. In West Africa, temperatures remained abnormally high in the western Sahel while rainfall generally improved in the coastal countries.
April 1-10 2000 - Cyclone Hudah made landfall along the northeast coast of Madagascar on April 2, causing floods and displacing numerous people. The storm later brought heavy rains to the north coast of Mozambique. In Ethiopia, drought worsened in central and southeastern areas, but rains began in the northwest. Drought continued in northern Kenya. Light to moderate rains fell in Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda. Most of southern African continued to report above-normal rainfall while below normal rains fell in Central Africa, East Africa and West Africa. Heavy to very heavy rain fell over northeast and western Angola and moderate to heavy rain fell over DRC, Congo Republic, Gabon and southern Cameroon. In West Africa, moderate to heavy rains were limited to southern Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone and southern Guinea.
March 21-31 2000 - Drought worsened over Ethiopia and interior Kenya, as little or no rain fell again this period. Ethiopia’s rainy season was almost 2 months late. Abnormal dryness also covered northern Uganda and southern Sudan. Meteosat estimates showed heavy to very heavy rainfall over northeast DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwest Tanzania and the northern part of Angola. There was evidence of a northward shift of the ITCZ to Central and East African regions during the period, but the poor onset of rainfall over Eastern Africa may result in poor harvests this season in a number of countries. Southern Africa continued to see above-normal rainfall. The bulk of the southern Africa mainland and Madagascar reported light to moderate rainfall, while the island of Seychelles reported heavy rainfall. In West Africa, seasonably dry conditions covered the Sahel while below normal conditions prevailed over the entire Gulf of Guinea coast.
March 11-20 2000 - Southern Africa continued to receive abundant rains, and heavy downpours again pounded the southern half of Mozambique, while moderate rains were observed northern Madagascar. In East Africa, the rainy season has yet to materialize over many areas, including northern Kenya, northern Uganda, and the Ethiopian highlands. Light to moderate rains were observed over parts of central Africa, while Meteosat rainfall estimates indicated heavy rains over the DRC. In West Africa seasonably dry conditions prevailed over the Sahel, while the Gulf of Guinea region received isolated moderate rains at some locations.
March 1-10 2000 - In southern Africa, the heavy rains that flooded the region for the last 2 months are diminishing fairly fast as the rainfall belt shifts northward. Cyclone Gloria contributed to heavy to very heavy rains over east-central Madagascar. The bulk of the interior areas on the continent reported only light to moderate rains, though the remains of Gloria dumped heavy rains along the southern coast of Mozambique late in the period. Satellite estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains over southeastern Angola and northwestern Zambia. In East Africa, unseasonably dry weather prevailed over Ethiopia, Kenya, and northern Tanzania, as the rainy season has been very slow to start. Rainfall in the region was mostly confined to Tanzania, though some rains fell over the southern parts of Kenya and Uganda as the rainy season advanced into the equatorial areas. Over the Central African region, light to moderate rains fell over Gabon, while satellite estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains over most parts of the DRC. The West African region recorded only light rains in the coastal areas, while the Sahel continued to be seasonably dry.
February 11-20 2000 - In southern Africa, Tropical Cyclone Eline swept across Madagascar on the 18th and regenerated over the Mozambique Channel, striking central Mozambique on the 22nd. The cyclone contributed to moderate to heavy rains over the Mascarene Islands and the eastern coast of Madagascar. Moderate to heavy rains soaked much of continental southern Africa, aggravating flooding in several countries. Over the central African region, moderate to heavy rains fell over the coastal areas of Congo and Gabon, while satellite estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains over most of the DRC. The Eastern African region continued to be dry with light to moderate rains confined mainly to Tanzania. The West African region recorded light rains along the coast, while the Sahel continued to be seasonably dry.
February 1-10 2000 - In southern Africa, heavy to very heavy rains, causing record floods, inundated a broad region covering southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, southeastern Botswana and northeastern South Africa. Also, heavy to very heavy rains fell over the islands of Seychelles, while heavy rains covered central and northern areas of Madagascar. Satellite estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains centered over central Angola. Over the Central African region, heavy rains fell in the coastal areas of Gabon, while satellite estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains over eastern DRC. The East African region was unseasonably dry with light to moderate rains confined to the southwestern areas of Tanzania and the Lake Victoria basin. The West African region was also dry. Temperatures were below normal over wide areas of West Africa, stretching from Chad to southern Mali.
January 21-31 2000 - In southern Africa, very heavy rains associated with the tropical cyclone Connie were reported over the Mascarene Islands of Mauritius and Réunion. Also heavy to very heavy rains were reported over northwestern Madagascar. Moderate rains were also observed over parts of Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Lighter rains were observed elsewhere. Over the Eastern African region, both rainfall reports and satellite rainfall estimates indicated a reduction in rainfall. For Central Africa, satellite estimates indicated that moderate to heavy rains were limited to central and southern DRC. Over West Africa, there were no reports of significant rainfall. Finally, temperatures were above normal across the Sahel, and below normal over much of southern Africa.
January 11-20 2000 - In southern Africa, moderate to heavy rains fell over most of the region, including Mozambique and eastern South Africa. Flooding has occurred in both countries this month. Light to moderate amounts accumulated in western areas and in eastern Madagascar. Satellite rainfall estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains over western Tanzania. Over central Africa, satellite estimates indicated a considerable decrease in rainfall, with heavy rains mainly limited to eastern DRC. Over West Africa, light to moderate rains fell mainly along the coastal areas. Below-normal temperatures covered wide areas of central and southern South Africa while above-normal temperatures covered wide parts of West Africa.
January 1-10 2000 - In southern Africa, satellite rainfall estimates indicated heavy to very heavy rains over northeastern Angola extending to northwestern Zambia as well as southern Malawi and central Mozambique. From the rainfall reports, widespread moderate rains were observed over northern and eastern South Africa, central, northern and eastern Botswana, Zimbabwe as well as southern and northeastern Mozambique while moderate to heavy rains were reported over northern and western Madagascar. In eastern Africa, satellite rainfall estimates indicated moderate to heavy rains centered over central western Tanzania, moderate rains extended to Rwanda, Burundi and the Lake Victoria basin; otherwise the remaining areas of the region were mainly dry. In central Africa, satellite rainfall estimates indicated heavy to very heavy rains centered over the southeastern and eastern areas of DRC (former Zaire). Rainfall reports indicated moderate to heavy rains over Gabon and western DRC. In West Africa, unseasonal moderate rains were reported over Côte d’Ivoire.